The restart of nuclear power and the outbreak of domestic nuclear grade zirconium Market

With the restart of nuclear power in China, it is expected that about 7 units will be put into construction every year in 2015 and 2016, and the demand for zirconium materials of new units will also recover rapidly

According to the rhythm of putting nuclear power projects under construction into commercial operation and the approval rhythm of new units in the future, it is expected that the demand for zirconium for nuclear power in China will break out from 2015 to 2017. The reason is that from 2014, the units under construction will be put into operation intensively from 2014 to 2016, and the replacement demand begins to rise; Meanwhile, with the restart of nuclear power in China, it is expected that about 7 units will be put into construction every year in 2015 and 2016, and the demand for zirconium materials of new units will also recover rapidly. Therefore, the demand for zirconium materials in China is expected to rise from less than 250 tons in 2014 to more than 600 tons in 2017. If calculated based on the 50% yield of zirconium materials, the demand for nuclear grade sponge zirconium in China's nuclear power will also increase from less than 500 tons in 2014 to 1250 tons in 2017.

Similar to zirconium materials used in nuclear reactors, military reactors also need to use a large number of zirconium materials. Zirconium materials are mainly used for cladding tubes and structural materials of nuclear fuel. At the same time, military reactors have higher requirements for the abundance of nuclear fuel. Uranium zirconium alloy is usually used as the fuel core material, so the amount of zirconium used in military reactors is higher.

By 2020, the navy may supplement 4-6 nuclear submarines

On July 6, Richard Fisher, a senior researcher at the US Center for international assessment and strategy, said in an article a few days ago that the PLA will have six to eight nuclear submarines by 2020. Given that the PLA Navy currently has two "Shang" class nuclear submarines in service and is building four improved "Shang" class nuclear submarines to replace the "Han" class nuclear submarines, the change of two of them may mean that two "Han" class nuclear submarines may continue to serve, or the PLA Navy will build two new nuclear submarines by 2020. Therefore, by 2020, China's navy may supplement 4-6 nuclear submarines.

China's research on marine nuclear power system has a history of decades, and the accumulation of relevant technology is very strong. Recently, the construction of nuclear powered aircraft carrier seems to be accelerating. According to the website of CSIC on February 19, 2013, the 863 project of "Research on key technologies and safety of nuclear powered ships" and the science and technology support project of "small nuclear reactor power generation technology and its demonstration application" of the Ministry of science and technology of CSIC 719 Institute were officially approved. This is seen by the outside world as a signal that China will begin to develop a nuclear powered aircraft carrier. Overseas media said that China will implement the aircraft carrier construction plan in stages. "Four conventional powered aircraft carriers will be built in the first stage, and at least two nuclear powered aircraft carriers will be built in the second stage, which is expected to be delivered to the Navy around 2020".

To sum up, by 2020, according to the prediction of one new aircraft carrier and four nuclear submarines in China, China will increase the demand for zirconium materials by 360 tons, with an annual increase of about 60 tons. The annual demand for nuclear grade sponge zirconium will be 120 tons when converted at a 50% yield rate.

It is expected that the full localization of zirconium alloy will be realized in 2-3 years

At present, there are mainly two domestic nuclear grade sponge zirconium production enterprises, Guohe Weike and Dongfang zirconium industry. Guohe Weike, established in 2009, is a joint venture between Guohe BaoTi and Westinghouse. Its phase I sponge zirconium production capacity is 1500 tons, and the planned production capacity is 2000 tons; Chaoyang East zirconium, a subsidiary of Dongfang zirconium industry, has a capacity of 150 tons of nuclear sponge zirconium, and a capacity of 1000 tons of nuclear sponge zirconium is under construction. The total capacity of the two is more than 2650 tons, which can meet the demand for nuclear grade zirconium in China by 2020.

China has a solid foundation for zirconium material processing, and there are mainly two production lines: one is northwest zirconium pipe (currently, it is subordinate to Guohe BaoTi), which has introduced a full set of zirconium pipe production equipment from abroad, and the equipment level has reached the international advanced level in the 1990s. The other is the zirconium pipe production line of Shanghai Gaotai rare precious metals Co., Ltd. (currently controlled by CNNC). The two lines have a total capacity of 1.5 million meters of zirconium pipes, and nearly 200000 meters of zirconium alloy pipes were produced during the Tenth Five Year Plan period. Zirconium alloy pipes for nuclear power reactors built by China for Pakistan are completed on these two production lines. At present, CNNC Areva zirconium tube company (CAST), a joint venture between Shanghai Gaotai and France alpha, has realized the localization supply of M5 zirconium tubes. CNNC BaoTi / Northwest zirconium tube is trying to realize the localization of Zirlo zirconium tube.

Despite the historical accumulation of zirconium and zirconium materials in China, zirconium alloys with independent intellectual property rights have not been formed. Through technology transfer, China has successively introduced E110 zirconium alloy from Russia, M5 alloy from France and Zirlo zirconium alloy from the United States. However, at present, these alloys have not been localized in industrial application. At present, China's zirconium alloy must also rely on foreign imports. For example, the domestic M310 unit needs to buy M5 alloy from France, and the AP1000 unit needs to buy Zirlo alloy from the United States.

It is expected that the full localization of M5 and Zirlo zirconium alloys will be realized within 2-3 years, while the industrial application of zirconium alloys with independent intellectual property rights may be after 2023.

A nuclear grade zirconium production line with comprehensive independent intellectual property rights in China

CNNC is a domestic supplier of nuclear fuel elements and has a monopoly position in the nuclear fuel element market. In terms of localization of zirconium materials for nuclear fuel elements, CNNC has a wide layout and complete industrial chain. After CNNC obtained the control of Dongfang zirconium industry through share exchange in 2013, the sponge zirconium link was completed. Dongfang zirconium industry takes the opportunity to enter the system of orthodox nuclear fuel element suppliers and can give priority to the opportunities brought by the expansion of market demand for nuclear grade zirconium.